本文摘要：Michael Levin of Consumer Information Research Partners, which on Monday released to the press the attached chart, likes to talk about smartphones in the language of conventional retail.消费者信息研究伙伴公司的迈克尔o列文周一向媒体发布了上述图表。

Michael Levin of Consumer Information Research Partners, which on Monday released to the press the attached chart, likes to talk about smartphones in the language of conventional retail.消费者信息研究伙伴公司的迈克尔o列文周一向媒体发布了上述图表。他讨厌用于传统零售业的语言谈论智能手机市场。“A huge number of people just bought their next iPhone,” he says. “It’s like they went to Costco and stocked up on a shitload of toilet paper.”他回应：“很多人刚出售了新的iPhone手机，这就样子他们去了一趟好市多餐馆，订购了大量卫生纸黑市在家里一样。

”In retailing terms, U.S. iPhone buyers “filled the pantry” last quarter, and it’s going to be a long time before they come back for more.用零售业的术语来说，美国的iPhone用户上个季度“备足了存货”，等他们下次再行来出售手机，有可能要等到很长时间以后了。How long? Levin doesn’t hazard a guess, but he points to several factors that would tend to slow down the replacement cycle.这个时间究竟有多长？列文没展开胡乱猜测，不过他认为了几个有可能减慢移位周期的因素。o 72% of iPhone owners have a relatively new phone — less than a year and a half oldo 72%的iPhone用户的手机比较较新的——只出售了将近一年半。

o 86% of the people who activated iPhones last quarter were repeat customers. (Android repeats, at 72%, were close behind)o 在上个季度转录iPhone的用户中，86%归属于再度出售iPhone（安卓的再度出售比例紧随其后，超过72%。）o 30% of those phones were financed, not subsidizedo 30%的手机采行了贷款方案，而不是补贴模式。“Apple’s ability to pick off first time buyers or persuade Android owners to switch has diminished greatly,” says Levin. “Loyalty has increased dramatically.”列文回应：“苹果更有首次出售的新用户或说服安卓用户切换阵营的能力明显减少了，用户的忠诚度大幅提高。”And the growing popularity of financing — buying phones over time, like a car — could make it harder to sell anybody a new phone.贷款购机，也就是说像买车一样分期付款出售手机，于是以显得更加风行，这也许造成销售新手机显得更为艰难。

“When you are done paying for your car,” says Levin, “you get this sort of ‘ahhh’ feeling, where you can wait for a while before you start buying a new one.”列文回应：“当你再一还完了车贷时，你不会有一种‘谢天谢地’的感觉，这时你不会略为等一阵子，而不是马上再买一辆新的。”It’s the same with phones. “When people finally own their phone they may say to themselves, ‘hey I’ve got this phone and its kind of new so I don’t have pay for another one anymore.”买手机也是一样。“当人们再一享有了一台新手机，他们可能会对自己说道：‘我沦为这部手机的主人了，它还一挺新的，所以我继续会再买其它手机了。

’”The two-year subsidy model never made much sense, says Levin, and now it’s going away.列文回应，为期两年的补贴模式只不过没多大意义，正在逐步解散。This affects Apple more than Android because Apple’s phones tend to last longer and their customers are more loyal.这对苹果的影响要小于安卓，因为苹果手机一般用于时间更长，苹果用户的忠诚度也更高。Levin, like a lot of analysts, is looking ahead to the next generation of iPhones and wondering how Apple can keep it up.像很多其他分析师一样，列文也在未来发展下一代iPhone，很想要告诉苹果将如何坚持下去。“For Apple to sell a lot of phones in a year or two,” he says,” they’re going to have to come up with some unbelievable innovation.”他回应：“苹果要想要在一两年里之后销售大量iPhone，就必需拿走一些不可思议的创意。

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